Everyone is fighting in the first line of designers, especially many small design company design director, everybody is confused, confusion is feeling cold winter has come, how long it was on the go, to have a warm, spring to have? The plenum noted that 6.5% of the 18 th five is much starker choices-and graver consequences-in growth during the baseline, sounds 6.5% 0.4% lower than 6.9%, is now cold enough, how did this 0.4%? The temperature will go down, how to do?

First the present difficulties is seen in the Chinese economy, especially in relatively traditional industries, 6.9% already feel very afflictive, 6.5% could be more painful. Architectural design, interior design, soft outfit design, hotel design etc, most of them are feeling the pain.

Why the traditional business is bad now? Very popular theory is that excess capacity, this is never wrong, this is with the economic downturn, it seems to me is almost with the repetition of a word. Overcapacity is like we are all full, the rest of the rice don't want to eat on the table. So I think this matter with excess capacity, so to speak, but not as a reason. If only stay at this level on the capacity, is obviously wrong.

Asking, why excess capacity? Why traditional industries for now? From the data is very simple, our demand for capacity now is slowing. 1 to September this year to 10% of investment in fixed assets, the data was 13%, more than a year ago, further 15%, four or five years ago is about 20%, fixed assets investment will account for around 45% of GDP, is a big head. So a direct cause of excess capacity is fixed asset investment growth is slowing.

Then ask again, why the fixed asset investment growth is slowing? Why is more clear, slowed growth of investment in fixed assets two things:

First, hotel investment and development speed is falling from month to month, has been falling for nearly two years, recently number dropped to 3%, 4%. Real estate can account for 20% of investment in fixed assets, so no surprise drop in fixed asset investment growth.

The second reason, account for about 15% of investment in fixed assets of infrastructure investment is slow. Many new construction projects growth dropped to 5%, growth is slower than the whole project under construction, heralding the whole fixed assets investment growth is difficult to reverse in the next two months, growth is difficult to go up again.

Continue to cross-examine, hotel investment and development speed down? Why the decline in infrastructure growth? We to XiaWen layers, ask questions and then to analyze, to predict, it is thinking. Hotel investment and development of strength growth decline is easy to understand, that is so far, our hotel inventory or higher, not only is the commercial, and residential. But the stock is higher this thing, now see the "bottom", basically nationally real estate sales, sales area, and prices go up, starting from may this year, growth in monthly rise, prices and sales go up. Is expected in a quarter or two real estate investment and development should start pick up.

Why the hotel design happen? Why the real estate prices and sales rise step by step? The reason behind China's economic geography is the changes in, is our mind changes in traditional Chinese economic landscape. In many areas, such as the northeast, is really bad, but the real estate, large cities, large cities in central China are still very busy, not in Beijing, Shanghai, shenzhen, the shenzhen 1 to September this year house prices rose by only 30%. So the central region, hefei, changsha, wuhan, including a little west of chengdu, the area of real estate have warmed. This is because the population and economic activities gradually gathered in the central region.